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Budget 2024: the economic backdrop

Three issues come to the fore in the wake of yesterday’s Budget. First is the fundamental challenge of Britain’s weak trend rate of growth. Second is that while the two pence cut in national insurance was welcome, it should not divert attention from the need for tax simplification and reform and that the UK’s tax take is high and still rising. Third, the challenge of low public investment, and the challenges facing non-ring-fenced departments in coming years.

Geopolitical risk and the end of cheap money is the new normal

What is the new normal? Globally, financial markets are coming to terms with a new geopolitical, economic and policy landscape. The most dramatic change is geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of a further splintering world order. Many possible paths exist, and the multiple elections this year add to these.

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